Affordability

In this research, we go beyond headline price statistics to combine local wage data with real mortgage costs across 48 Polish cities, translating complex market dynamics into two intuitive measures: how many working days per month it takes to service a mortgage, and how much is left in your pocket once the installment is paid. Our approach cuts through the noise of the public debate by separating price effects from income effects – revealing that the relationship between wages and housing costs is far less straightforward than it appears. The results deliver actionable, city-level benchmarks relevant to real estate strategy, product development, and public policy alike.
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Business challenge

Housing affordability in Poland has become one of the most debated socioeconomic issues in recent years. While apartment prices in major cities are reaching record highs, wages in those locations are also significantly above the national average – making it difficult to assess true affordability without accounting for both dimensions simultaneously. Wage disparities across cities further complicate the picture, as they drive internal migration that increases housing demand and puts additional upward pressure on prices.

This project addresses that gap by analyzing two interconnected problems across 48 Polish cities: how many working days per month a median earner must dedicate to servicing a mortgage, and what income remains afterward – and what standard of living it enables. By integrating both housing costs and local wage levels into a single comparative framework, the analysis aims to deliver an evidence-based answer to the question of where in Poland housing is truly most and least affordable.

Methodology

The analysis covers 48 Polish cities, the three largest in each of Poland’s 16 voivodeships. Data was sourced from GUS (median wages by occupation, 2025), Deweloperuch (median residential transaction prices by apartment size, 2025), and NBP (average mortgage interest rates, August 2025 – January 2026).

Affordability is modelled across apartments sized 30–100 m² with loan tenors of 20–30 years and a 20% down payment, with primary focus on apartments up to 70 m² on a 30-year mortgage. The analysis is conducted both at city level and through the lens of four occupational groups: warehouse workers, hairdressers, teachers, and IT specialists.

Key findings

 

Mortgage payments vary disproportionately in relation to wages: higher wages
in a city generally mean mortgage payments that are many times higher
  • Provincial capitals have disproportionately high mortgage payments relative to wages, while other cities have disproportionately low mortgage payments
  • In provincial capitals, the median salary is up to 30% higher than the average in the study group, while mortgage payments are up to 94% higher
 
Disposable income after paying the mortgage payment correlates very weakly
with the median salary in the city
  • Many cities with low median wages are characterized by high disposable income after paying the installment, and vice versa
  • Many smaller cities leave residents with high amounts of disposable income after paying the installment—among the top five cities in this regard are Wałbrzych, Sosnowiec, Płock, and Kędzierzyn-Koźle

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